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Day 20: Qatar expels Iran, Trump threatens to level South Pars
By Le Pivot — Iran Monitor · March 18, 2026 · 11 min read
Day twenty of the conflict. The fallout from the South Pars strike and Iran’s retaliation against Qatar is reshaping regional alliances. Doha expelled Iranian military attachés, Riyadh is discussing “non-diplomatic options,” and Trump threatened to “massively blow up” the entirety of the South Pars gas field. Israel is expanding operations to northern Iran and the Caspian Sea.
Qatar breaks with Tehran
Within 24 hours of the attack on its Ras Laffan terminal, Qatar expelled all Iranian military and security attachés from its territory. Qatar’s foreign ministry called the attack an “unjustifiable act of aggression,” marking a historic rupture between Doha and Tehran, which had maintained relatively stable relations despite the conflict.
Saudi Arabia followed suit with unprecedented statements. The Saudi foreign minister warned that “non-diplomatic options are on the table” if attacks continue, adding that “the little trust that remained in Iran has been completely shattered.”
Israel strikes the north and Caspian Sea
The Israeli military announced striking targets in northern Iran “for the first time since the war began on February 28.” Several Iranian warships equipped with anti-submarine missiles were sunk in the Caspian Sea — a significant geographic expansion of the theatre of operations.
Trump’s threat on South Pars
The US president sent contradictory signals. On one hand, he denied that the US or Qatar had prior knowledge of Israel’s strike on South Pars. On the other, he warned Iran that any further attack on Qatar would result in the “massive” destruction of “the entirety of the South Pars gas field.”
This threat carries enormous implications: South Pars is a transboundary field shared between Iran and Qatar. Its destruction would affect both countries and deprive the global market of a substantial share of its gas reserves.
Terror plot foiled in Kuwait
Kuwaiti security services announced they had thwarted a planned “terrorist operation” targeting critical infrastructure. Ten Kuwaiti citizens allegedly affiliated with Hezbollah were arrested, joining the 14 Kuwaitis and 2 Lebanese nationals detained the day before. Similar cells linked to Hezbollah and Iran were uncovered in the UAE and Bahrain.
Brent hits $115
Oil markets reached a new high with Brent at $115 per barrel, driven by uncertainty around Qatar’s LNG supply and the threat of total South Pars destruction. Since the conflict began on February 28, crude prices have risen by over 60%.
The impact is global. Natural gas futures in Europe and Asia have surged, and shipping companies are reassessing their routes through the Gulf.
19 attack waves on Israel
Iran launched 19 waves of ballistic missile attacks against Israel — a daily record. The geographic distribution shows broadening targets: Tel Aviv (31.6%), the north (31.6%), Jerusalem (26.3%), and the south (10.5%). Since the campaign’s start, 300 attack waves have been recorded, killing 18 civilians and wounding more than 4,002.
Hezbollah launched 54 attack waves of its own, including rockets, drones, anti-tank fire, and explosive devices.
Key takeaways
Day 20 marks the diplomatic rupture between Qatar and Iran — a direct consequence of the previous day’s energy escalation. Israel’s expansion of strikes to northern Iran and the Caspian Sea signals an intent to overwhelm Iranian defences. With Brent at $115, the global energy crisis is deepening. For Canada, rising oil prices paradoxically fuel Alberta’s industry revenues but weigh on Quebec consumers and overall inflation.