Iran, Day 13: Mojtaba Khamenei Vows to Keep Hormuz Closed, IEA Releases 400 Million Barrels

Day thirteen of war. For the first time since his appointment on March 8, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has broken his silence — and the message leaves no room for ambiguity. In a televised address broadcast on state media, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed “until the last American soldier leaves the region.” Hours later, the International Energy Agency responded with the largest coordinated strategic oil release in its 50-year history: 400 million barrels. The war has now killed at least 1,348 people in Iran, displaced 3.2 million, and drawn every Gulf state into the line of fire.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s First Address: Defiance Over Diplomacy

The new Supreme Leader’s inaugural public statement, delivered from an undisclosed location on Wednesday evening, was calibrated for both domestic and international audiences. Mojtaba Khamenei declared that Iran would “never negotiate under bombardment” and that the Strait of Hormuz blockade — enforced by naval mines, fast-attack boats, and anti-ship missile batteries along the coast — would persist indefinitely.

The speech contrasted sharply with the more measured tone struck by President Masoud Pezeshkian, who hours earlier had outlined three conditions for a ceasefire: a complete halt to U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, the withdrawal of all coalition naval assets from the Persian Gulf, and international guarantees — backed by China and Russia — against future attacks on Iranian soil. Analysts viewed Pezeshkian’s conditions as unrealistic but diplomatically significant, representing the first formal framework Tehran has put forward since the conflict began (Al Jazeera, Reuters).

Adding fuel to an already incendiary atmosphere, former IRGC commander General Yahya Rahim Safavi described the United States as “the Great Satan that has come to die in the waters of the Persian Gulf.” The rhetoric signals that the hardline military establishment, not the civilian government, remains the dominant voice in Tehran’s war council.

Military Operations: 6,000 Targets and a Tragic Error

The Pentagon confirmed that coalition forces have now struck over 6,000 targets across Iran since February 28, involving more than 90 naval vessels at an estimated cost of $11.3 billion. The scope of the campaign now exceeds the opening phase of the 2003 Iraq War in both intensity and expenditure.

Among the targets hit on Wednesday were air defense installations in Isfahan, fuel storage depots near Bandar Abbas, and a Revolutionary Guards command post in Shiraz. The U.S. Central Command reported that approximately 85% of Iran’s integrated air defense network has been degraded — a claim difficult to verify independently but consistent with the near-total absence of Iranian aerial resistance in recent days.

However, the campaign’s most consequential strike on Day 13 was not against a military target. A precision-guided munition struck a primary school in the city of Kerman during morning hours, killing at least 23 children and 4 teachers. The Pentagon acknowledged the strike as a “tragic error” caused by outdated intelligence that had identified the building as a militia coordination centre. The incident drew immediate international condemnation, with the UN Secretary-General calling it “a devastating reminder of the human cost of this war” and demanding an independent investigation.

Iran’s state media broadcast images of the destroyed school within minutes, and the footage quickly circulated on social media worldwide, intensifying pressure on the Biden — now Trump — administration from humanitarian organizations and allied governments alike (BBC, France 24).

Humanitarian Toll: 1,348 Dead, 3.2 Million Displaced

The human cost of the conflict continues to accelerate. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), at least 1,348 civilians have been killed in Iran since February 28, including over 200 children. The actual toll is believed to be significantly higher, as communications remain severed in several provinces, particularly Khuzestan and Sistan-Baluchestan.

Internal displacement has reached 3.2 million people, with mass movements toward Turkey, Iraq, and Pakistan overwhelming border infrastructure. The UNHCR has declared the situation a “Level 3 emergency” — its highest classification — and called for $2.1 billion in emergency funding. Afghan refugees, already among the most vulnerable populations in Iran, account for a disproportionate share of the displaced (The New Humanitarian, UNHCR).

In Lebanon, where Israel has opened a parallel front against Hezbollah, the death toll has surpassed 630 since March 2. Israeli strikes have hit southern suburbs of Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and areas near the UNIFIL zone. Lebanese hospitals report being overwhelmed, with medical supplies running critically low in the south of the country.

The Gulf Under Siege: Five Nations, One Theatre

The regionalization of the conflict reached a new peak on Day 13. Every Gulf Cooperation Council member state has now come under direct or indirect Iranian attack:

• Saudi Arabia: The IRGC launched a volley of ballistic missiles targeting the al-Udeid-adjacent base infrastructure and the port of Jubail, one of the world’s largest industrial ports. Saudi air defenses intercepted most projectiles, but debris damaged a petrochemical facility.
• United Arab Emirates: Dubai’s international airport was briefly closed after missile fragments were found on the tarmac. Abu Dhabi reported intercepting four drones over its airspace.
• Kuwait: Two cruise missiles struck near the Ali Al Salem Air Base, a key staging area for U.S. operations. No casualties were reported, but operations were temporarily suspended.
• Bahrain: A drone struck a water desalination facility on the main island, disrupting supply to approximately 200,000 residents. The U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama was placed on heightened alert.
• Oman: Muscat, which has historically maintained neutrality and served as a diplomatic back-channel with Tehran, was targeted for the first time. A missile landed in an unpopulated area near Sohar, but the symbolic significance was not lost on regional observers — Iran is signalling that no Gulf state is safe.

The simultaneous targeting of five sovereign nations has prompted emergency consultations at the UN Security Council, though no resolution is expected given Russian and Chinese opposition to condemning Iran (Al Jazeera, Reuters).

Oil Markets: $100 a Barrel and the Largest Reserve Release in History

Brent crude crossed the $100 per barrel threshold on Wednesday morning and held there throughout the day, settling at $101.40 — up more than 25% since the conflict began. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil transits daily, remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with insurers refusing to cover tanker passages.

In response, the International Energy Agency announced the release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves across its 31 member nations — the largest coordinated release in the agency’s history, surpassing the 60 million barrels released after Libya’s 2011 civil war by a factor of nearly seven. The United States will contribute the lion’s share — approximately 180 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which will be drawn down to its lowest level since 1984. Canada has pledged 24 million barrels.

The IEA’s executive director described the release as “an extraordinary measure for an extraordinary crisis” but cautioned that strategic reserves are a “bridge, not a solution.” Markets responded tepidly: oil dipped briefly to $98 before rebounding, reflecting traders’ assessment that the reserves will buy weeks, not months, of relief if the Hormuz blockade persists.

For Canada, the crisis has reignited debates about the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and energy self-sufficiency. Gasoline prices in Montreal and Toronto have risen by more than 30 cents per litre since late February, and the federal government is facing mounting pressure to cap fuel exports and prioritize domestic supply (Bloomberg, CNBC, Globe and Mail).

What to Remember

Day 13 crystallized the conflict’s central paradox: each side is escalating in pursuit of leverage, but every escalation makes negotiation harder. Mojtaba Khamenei’s vow to maintain the Hormuz blockade is a strategic gamble — it inflicts global economic pain but also accelerates the destruction of Iran’s own military infrastructure. The IEA’s historic reserve release signals that Western economies are bracing for a prolonged conflict, not a quick resolution. With 1,348 dead in Iran, 3.2 million displaced, five Gulf nations under fire, and oil durably above $100, the war is no longer a bilateral confrontation between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli coalition. It is a regional conflagration with global consequences — and the diplomatic tools to contain it are nowhere in sight.